" report " proposal, the country is done to policy of active and relevant banking about the branch a few adjust, loosen moderately from tight monetary policy, urge production, investment and consumption, with needing inside stimulation, encourage domestic investment and company production, should anticipate to economic situation glide brought adverse effect. Without exception, shenzhen building city should be saved.
Why should save? The reason that the controller of research center of Shenzhen city estate gives out is, from last year since second half of the year, shenzhen house price is adjusted continuously, when comparing highest last year peak to now, dropped nearly 40% , but price falls the volume does not rise, this does not accord with economic rule, put in a few abnormal elements really. This word implication, look namely of market of anteroom real estate dropping is policy makes the kill that quell of purpose, had violated basic economic law.
This is problem key place, estate market was out of order! The author thinks, shenzhen building city should be saved, but this one viewpoint is not to be investor to consider, however the result of economy of total consideration China and financial venture.
The reason of the person that object helping city is, at present Shenzhen building city did not break down. The market has his to develop cycle, have a climax, have trough necessarily; Present building town is small fan, just be in trough as a result of partial reason just, this is regular economic pattern. Arrived October from last year now, shenzhen share building dish house price fell 3 into, development business did not close down, bank banking venture also did not erupt, not was necessary to help city.
But arrive really when erupting, rescue is late, with respect to the estate crisis that can lead to American type, and China did not resemble the United States ability of in that way crisis marry again. Estate drag in arrives finance and local finance two. 2005, countrywide land auctions money paid for something purchased or received for something sold 600 billion, achieved 2006 767 billion, achieved further 2007 1 trillion. 3 years of time, estate business bought the ground to cost 2.3 trillion. From the whole nation price of 30 main cities occupies the scale of house price to look, maintained basically to 2004 2000 in 23% the left and right sides, achieved 2005 27% , 2006 and reduced 2007 25.3% with 23.2% . According to lowest 23% computation, the fund that buys ground expenditure 3 this years needs to sell a house of 10 trillion to come in future. The wool interest rate that develops business suppose is 30% , its cost should be achieved 7 trillion. After giving money of 2.3 trillion land, is estate capable still to be paid again 4.7 trillion build a house? Hypothesis loan scale is 50% , can their own reserves achieve 2 trillion above? The estate sale of annual just did not pass 2007 3 trillion just.
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